ScoutDesk | Issue no. 11
A quick editorial note: We are changing up when we send the weekly newsletter. It was starting to feel like Saturday morning was not the optimal time to be be sending, so we are trying Tuesdays. Write back and let us know what you think.
This week brought 43 new listings across the Bay Area, and the financial data tells a story about what's actually happening in the business-for-sale market right now. The numbers range from a $35,000 mystery business in San Francisco to a $1.8 million tanning franchise empire in Santa Rosa generating over half a million in cash flow.
What stands out isn't just the variety — everything from sourdough e-commerce to cosmetic surgery clinics — but how many sellers are finally putting real financial data on the table. We've got cash flow figures on 15 deals, EBITDA on several more, and enough revenue data to start calculating multiples. That's unusual transparency for this market.
The restaurant and food category dominates again with 15 listings, but the service businesses are where the math gets interesting. A dental practice in Santa Rosa is asking 2x cash flow. A window covering business in Mountain View trades at 1.5x. A physical therapy practice in San Jose wants 4.2x — which tells you something about how sellers value healthcare businesses versus everything else.
As you scan the deals below, focus on the ones with disclosed cash flow. Those are the sellers who understand that serious buyers need real numbers to move forward. The rest are fishing expeditions or brokers testing market appetite.
Top deals this week
I evaluate deals based on cash flow multiples, operational leverage, market durability, and whether the asking price makes mathematical sense for a buyer who needs to service debt and take home a living.
Santa Rosa Dental Office — Santa Rosa, Sonoma County. Asking $500,000. Revenue $700,000. Cash flow $250,000.
At 2x cash flow, this is the most attractively priced deal in the batch. Dental practices typically trade at 3-4x, making this either a motivated seller or a practice with issues not disclosed in the listing. The $250,000 cash flow on $700,000 revenue suggests good operational efficiency. Location in Santa Rosa gives you North Bay market access without San Francisco overhead.
Window Covering Business — Mountain View, Santa Clara County. Asking $250,000. Revenue $518,811. Cash flow $162,717.
The 1.5x cash flow multiple here is aggressive pricing for a business with over half a million in revenue. Window treatments are a steady, repeat business with high margins and local market protection. The South Bay location means affluent customer base with ongoing construction and renovation activity.
Tanning Franchise Empire — Santa Rosa, Sonoma County. Asking $1,795,000. Revenue $1,902,797. Cash flow $528,745.
At 3.4x cash flow, this is expensive but represents true absentee ownership across four locations. The $528,745 cash flow means you could service $1.2 million in debt and still clear $200,000+ annually. Tanning is recession-resistant with subscription-style recurring revenue, though the industry faces long-term demographic headwinds.
Deals under $200k
These are owner-operator entry points — businesses where you're buying yourself a job to improve, or testing entrepreneurship without betting the house.
Sourdough E-commerce — San Mateo. $85,000. Revenue $134,435.
San Francisco Granola — San Francisco. $140,000. Revenue $262,380. Cash flow $22,464.
Women-Only Gym — San Rafael, Marin County. $75,000. Revenue $104,267. Cash flow $14,482.
Barber Shop — San Jose. $150,000.
SF Liquor Store — San Francisco. $125,000. Revenue $360,000.
Boba Shop — Pleasanton. $180,000.
Indian Restaurant — San Mateo. $179,000.
Thai Restaurant — Petaluma. $155,000. Revenue $460,000.
The standout here is the SF liquor store at $125,000 with $360,000 revenue — that's 0.35x revenue, which suggests either aggressive pricing or significant operational challenges. Most of these sub-$200k deals lack disclosed cash flow, making due diligence critical.
Food and beverage
Restaurants remain the most common business-for-sale category, offering immediate cash flow but requiring hands-on management and facing ongoing labor and rent pressures.
Profitable Corner Café — San Francisco. $330,000. Revenue $720,000. Cash flow $330,000.
$3.2M Restaurant & Bar — Santa Clara. $649,000. Revenue $3,200,000.
Korean Restaurant — Solano County. $590,000.
Pizza Restaurant — Morgan Hill. $525,000. Revenue $898,613. Cash flow $224,717.
Livermore Restaurant — Livermore. $399,000. Revenue $2,830,000.
Chinese Restaurant — Pleasanton. $210,000.
Petaluma Restaurant — Petaluma. $195,000.
SF Fast-Casual Space — San Francisco. $150,000.
Belmont Restaurant — Belmont. $150,000.
Russian Hill Sushi — San Francisco. $99,000.
Thai Restaurant — Petaluma. $155,000. Revenue $460,000. (featured above)
Indian Restaurant — San Mateo. $179,000. (featured above)
Boba Shop — Pleasanton. $180,000. (featured above)
The SF corner café claiming $330,000 cash flow on $720,000 revenue (46% margin) deserves serious scrutiny — those are exceptional numbers for food service. The $3.2 million Santa Clara restaurant asking only $649,000 suggests either motivated selling or significant operational issues not disclosed.
Retail
Grocery and retail businesses offer steady cash flow with established customer bases, though face ongoing pressure from e-commerce and changing shopping patterns.
SF Grocery Market — San Francisco. $1,300,000.
Mexican Grocery & Butcher — Contra Costa County. $259,000.
Liquor Store & Pizza — Alameda County. $649,000. Revenue $1,000,000.
Indian Grocery — Newark. $525,000. Revenue $375,000.
SF Liquor Store — San Francisco. $125,000. Revenue $360,000. (featured above)
The Alameda liquor store claiming $200,000 net on $1 million revenue represents strong margins for grocery retail. Both liquor/pizza combinations suggest the diversified model works in this market. The Newark Indian grocery at $525,000 asking versus $375,000 revenue signals either strong cash flow or optimistic pricing.
Local services you can operationalize
Service businesses often provide the best combination of cash flow, operational leverage, and growth potential for owner-operators willing to systematize and scale.
Contents Restoration Franchise — Hayward. $1,598,000. Revenue $3,382,000. EBITDA $355,000.
Architecture & Design — Alameda. $1,200,000. Revenue $1,020,100. Cash flow $308,800.
Test Equipment Repair — Menlo Park. $675,000. Revenue $640,745. Cash flow $246,495.
Spot Repair Services — Santa Clara. $340,000. Revenue $360,000. Cash flow $126,368.
Farmers Insurance Agency — San Jose. $265,000. Revenue $173,000.
Mobile Nursing — Santa Clara. $250,000. Revenue $53,000.
Coin Laundry — Santa Clara. $175,000.
Window Covering Business — Mountain View. $250,000. Revenue $518,811. Cash flow $162,717. (featured above)
The contents restoration franchise at 4.5x EBITDA reflects the premium buyers pay for established systems and insurance relationships. The architecture firm's 3.9x multiple suggests strong client relationships and recurring project flow. Mobile nursing at $250,000 asking for a business pacing $100,000 revenue indicates either aggressive growth assumptions or misaligned seller expectations.
Healthcare and wellness
Medical and wellness businesses offer recurring revenue and defensive characteristics, though often require specialized licensing or operational knowledge.
SF Cosmetic Surgery Clinic — San Francisco. $694,148. EBITDA $105,000.
Physical Therapy Practice — San Jose. $1,100,000. Revenue $1,011,283. Cash flow $263,694.
East San Jose Spa — San Jose. $450,000. Revenue $555,665. Cash flow $169,418.
Santa Rosa Dental Office — Santa Rosa. $500,000. Revenue $700,000. Cash flow $250,000. (featured above)
Tanning Franchise Empire — Santa Rosa. $1,795,000. Revenue $1,902,797. Cash flow $528,745. (featured above)
Women-Only Gym — San Rafael. $75,000. Revenue $104,267. Cash flow $14,482. (featured above)
The cosmetic surgery clinic at 6.6x EBITDA reflects the premium medical practices command, though the low $105,000 EBITDA on an undisclosed revenue base raises questions about operational efficiency. The physical therapy practice wanting 4.2x cash flow is aggressive pricing but reflects the recurring nature of PT relationships and insurance reimbursements.
Digital and scalable businesses
E-commerce and digital businesses offer geographic flexibility and scalability, though often lack the local market protection of traditional brick-and-mortar operations.
San Mateo Mystery Business — San Mateo. $750,000. Revenue $1,183,477.
Sourdough E-commerce — San Mateo. $85,000. Revenue $134,435. (featured above)
SF Granola Business — San Francisco. $140,000. Revenue $262,380. Cash flow $22,464. (featured above)
SF Mystery Business — San Francisco. $35,000. Revenue $85,000.
The San Mateo business asking $750,000 for $1.18 million revenue without disclosing the actual business model is either a sophisticated operator protecting trade secrets or a broker fishing for interest. The granola business shows the challenge of local food manufacturing — $22,464 cash flow on $262,380 revenue indicates razor-thin margins that would require significant operational improvements to justify the $140,000 asking price.
Franchise, agency, and route businesses
Franchise resales and agency businesses offer proven systems and ongoing support, though often come with territorial restrictions and ongoing fees.
Service Franchise Resale — Hayward. $1,598,000. Revenue $3,382,000. Cash flow $355,000.
Allstate Agency — Santa Clara. $999,999.
Contents Restoration Franchise — Hayward. $1,598,000. Revenue $3,382,000. EBITDA $355,000. (featured above)
Tanning Franchise Empire — Santa Rosa. $1,795,000. Revenue $1,902,797. Cash flow $528,745. (featured above)
Farmers Insurance Agency — San Jose. $265,000. Revenue $173,000. (featured above)
The duplicate Hayward listings suggest either data error or separate franchise locations. Insurance agencies typically trade at 2-3x annual commission income, making the Allstate opportunity expensive at $1 million unless the $7 million premium book generates substantial annual commissions.
Deal math of the week
The Santa Rosa dental practice deserves deeper analysis because healthcare businesses offer some of the most predictable cash flows in the market, and this one's priced to move.
The numbers: $500,000 asking price, $700,000 annual revenue, $250,000 cash flow. That's a 2x cash flow multiple, which is aggressive pricing for a dental practice. Most established dental practices trade at 3-4x cash flow, reflecting their recurring patient base and insurance reimbursement stability.
The $250,000 cash flow on $700,000 revenue suggests a 36% margin, which is reasonable for dental. Revenue per patient visit averages $200-400 in cosmetic-focused practices, so you're looking at roughly 1,750-3,500 patient visits annually. The practice likely serves a mix of routine cleanings, restorative work, and higher-margin cosmetic procedures.
A buyer could structure this as $150,000 down with $350,000 seller financing over 5-7 years. At $250,000 annual cash flow, debt service of $60,000-70,000 still leaves $180,000+ for owner compensation — attractive for a practice that likely requires 4 days per week once systems are in place.
The key diligence questions: Why is the seller pricing at 2x when the market supports 3-4x? Is patient retention strong through the transition? Are there pending insurance reimbursement issues? Does the practice own its patient management software and equipment, or are there significant lease obligations?
The Santa Rosa location offers North Bay market access without San Francisco overhead costs. The demographic supports dental spending, and the practice likely has limited direct competition within a 5-mile radius. For a dentist looking to acquire rather than start from scratch, this represents immediate cash flow with established systems.
Have a Bay Area business you're thinking about selling? Reply to this email and let's talk.