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ScoutDesk | Issue no. 8
This week’s deal flow is a reminder of how many different ways there are to own cash flow in the Bay Area. Membership models. Distribution routes. Long-running neighborhood retailers. Skill-based service operators. Some are small and scrappy. Others are built to support management and debt. The surface story is variety. The deeper opportunity is matching the right operator to the right machine.
Smart starts here.
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Food and beverage
This set is mostly “location + repeat demand.” On paper, that feels stable. Underneath, the diligence story is lease terms and transferability. If you’re skimming, look for listings where the economics work even if rent moves or the operator changes.
Downtown Sonoma restaurant (Sonoma) — asking $350,000.00
Turnkey cafe (El Cerrito) — asking $50,000.00
Turnkey liquor store and market in Pacific Heights (San Francisco) — asking $420,000.00; gross revenue $782,607.00; profitability $185,250.00
Bagel shop (Mill Valley) — asking $1,710,000.00; gross revenue $1,300,000.00; profitability $575,000.00
Thai restaurant (Vallejo) — asking $168,000.00
Berkeley restaurant (Berkeley) — asking $85,000.00
San Jose bar and restaurant (San Jose) — asking $248,000.00
Mission Foods route (Vacaville) — asking $105,000.00; gross revenue $559,156.00; profitability $97,852.00
Local services you can operationalize
These are the operational machines: crews, contracts, memberships, or repeat service. The real question this week isn’t “can it make money?” It’s “what’s doing the work — the system, the brand, or the owner?”
Orangetheory two-unit sale (Santa Clara County) — asking $385,000.00; gross revenue $1,400,000.00; profitability $120,000.00
Pool service route (Danville) — asking $22,200.00; gross revenue $31,200.00; profitability $24,500.00
Children indoor playground (Union City) — asking $450,000.00
Party bus business (Santa Clara County) — asking $125,000.00; gross revenue $70,000.00
Fitness franchise (Sonoma County) — asking $825,000.00; gross revenue $553,990.00; profitability $243,839.00
Window tinting (San Jose) — asking $1,800,000.00; gross revenue $1,500,000.00; profitability $565,000.00
11-chair salon (Alameda County) — asking $99,000.00; gross revenue $78,600.00; profitability $24,294.00
Wellness studio (Contra Costa County) — asking $175,000.00
Retail
Retail this week is thin but instructive. You’re buying foot traffic and habit — not just inventory.
Established furniture store for sale (San Mateo County) — asking $75,000.00
Professional services
These are relationship businesses wearing operational clothing. The diligence question is whether revenue sits in contracts or in conversations.
STEM robotics education (Pleasanton) — asking $65,000.00
Commercial print shop (Sonoma County) — asking $325,000.00; profitability $85,214.00
Deal math of the week
Turnkey liquor store and market in Pacific Heights.
$420,000 asking on $185,250 profitability. That’s roughly a 2.3x multiple — about a 2.3-year pre-debt payback.
On paper, that’s attractive for a dense SF location with long operating history.
What that multiple is really saying: you’re underwriting the lease. If rent resets meaningfully, the multiple stretches fast.
Three diligence questions I’d ask before getting excited:
How long is left on the current lease, and what are renewal terms?
What percentage of revenue is alcohol versus higher-margin grocery items?
How many hours per week does the owner currently work on-site?
One useful lens for this week’s mix: concentration risk
One useful lens for this week’s mix: concentration as leverage
Nearly every business in this issue is built around a powerful relationship:
A franchise agreement
A prime retail lease
A supplier territory
A trusted technician
A neighborhood reputation
That concentration isn’t automatically a weakness — it’s often the engine. Focus creates predictability. Predictability creates financeability. Financeability creates upside.
The key is understanding exactly where the leverage sits.
The Orangetheory units run on brand infrastructure and membership momentum. The Mission Foods route is powered by a defined territory and supplier pipeline. Restaurants and retail thrive on location and habit. The pool route and window tinting business turn operator skill into recurring revenue.
Buyer implication: when you see concentration, don’t flinch — map it. If you can secure, strengthen, or systematize the core relationship, you don’t just preserve cash flow. You expand it.
Practical takeaway: instead of asking “Is this dependent?” ask “Can I make this dependency more durable?” Longer lease terms. Broader customer mix. Cross-training staff. Diversified supplier agreements. Small structural upgrades can meaningfully increase enterprise value.
That’s where the real upside hides.