San Francisco Security Company, Palo Alto LEGO Robotics, and more

San Francisco Security Company, Palo Alto LEGO Robotics, and more

Issue no. 2: This week week’s listings provides a spectrum of opportunity. From owner-operator setups to more regulated services, there is no shortage of new listings.

This set is mostly lease-first businesses where you’re buying build-out, location, and (sometimes) a license more than you’re buying a brand. The real risk is lease-sensitive: rent, assignment, landlord approval, and whether the “turnkey” kitchen is actually turnkey. If you’re skimming, look for: what license transfers, what equipment is included, and whether the rent math leaves any oxygen.

This set is mostly “routes, relationships, and dispatch” businesses — the kind where the value lives in repeat customers and the machine that shows up on time. The real risk is owner-dependent (and labor-heavy): who answers the phone, who does the work on the ugly days, and what happens when the best tech leaves. If you’re skimming, look for: customer concentration, a clean handoff plan, and whether the seller’s “cash flow” includes a real owner salary.

This set is mostly “foot traffic arbitrage”: you’re renting location and trying to keep the gross margin wide enough to survive. The real risk is lease-sensitive and reputation-risk — mall/center terms, and whether customers keep coming when you’re the new owner. If you’re skimming, look for: rent, inventory included/not included, and whether the listing is really an asset sale in disguise.

This set is mostly relationship-based revenue with a compliance or credentialing wrapper. The real risk is regulated-transfer and owner-dependent: licenses, payer/contract transfer, and whether the clients stick through a handoff. If you’re skimming, look for: what exactly transfers, how revenue is sourced, and whether the seller will stay for a real transition.

High-End Bakery Cafe (Contra Costa County): $650,000 asking on $195,807 cash flow/sde. That’s about a 3.3x multiple (roughly a 3.3-year pre-debt payback).

What that multiple is really saying: you’re not paying for ovens and a menu — you’re paying for a repeatable production rhythm, a staffing model that can run “absentee,” and a demand engine that doesn’t collapse when the founder steps away. The due diligence question is whether the “absentee” claim is a real system or just a heroic manager.

Three diligence questions i’d ask before getting excited

This week’s listings are shouting about lease-sensitive risk — because a lot of the “business” you’re buying is really permission to keep operating at that address. Look at the burger spot: the listing spells out meaningful monthly rent and CAM, which is basically your fixed-cost governor. Look at the college-adjacent Mexican restaurant: the upside is foot traffic, but the real asset is a lease you can actually assume and extend.

Even the locksmith listing makes the point explicit with a long lease term and a serious monthly lease number — which is fine if the cash flow is durable, and terrifying if it’s not. The buyer move is to treat the lease like a second purchase agreement: request the full lease, confirm assignment and consent requirements, and model rent increases against conservative revenue.

One practical takeaway: before you fall in love with any “turnkey” listing, ask for the lease abstract (or the lease itself) and put the assignment clause in your top-three diligence checklist.