ScoutDesk

Issue no. 6 | Week of February 11, 2026

This week’s deal flow reads like a stress test for small business durability. On paper, many of these look stable — long operating histories, decent margins, familiar concepts. But under the surface, the real question isn’t revenue. It’s transferability. Can you step in without disrupting what makes the business work?

Food and beverage

This set includes absentee claims, SBA pre-qualification, and long-running neighborhood operators. The real diligence theme: how much of this revenue is personality-driven. If you’re skimming, look for listings where systems are described — not just vibes.

Local services you can operationalize

These are the “looks simple, is not simple” businesses. Revenue is steady — until the operator leaves. The diligence theme here is managerial depth.

Retail

Retail this week is quietly about expertise. Specialty inventory. Niche knowledge. Customer trust built over time. That’s valuable — and fragile.

Deal math of the week

$499,000 asking on $190,000 profitability (as listed). That’s roughly a 2.6x multiple — about a 2.6-year pre-debt payback.

What that multiple is really saying: the numbers look attractive, but the real question is who drives the performance. If the current owner is the culture, the vendor negotiator, and the marketing engine, that 2.6x changes fast.

Three diligence questions I’d ask before getting excited:

  • How many hours per week does the owner currently work?

  • Who handles supplier relationships and staff scheduling?

  • What written systems exist versus “how we’ve always done it”?

One useful lens for this week’s mix: owner dependence

This week’s listings quietly cluster around the same risk: how much of the business lives in the current owner’s head.

The bicycle shop likely runs on reputation and expertise. The boutique market is probably relationship-driven. The cocktail lounge and pizza shop might claim absentee status — but what does that actually mean in practice? Even service businesses like the adult day health center or smog shop can hinge on specific managers or credential holders.

Buyer implication: owner-dependent businesses can be great buys — but only if transition is real. You’re not just buying cash flow. You’re buying a handoff plan.

Practical takeaway: before LOI, ask for a written transition plan with timelines. Not “seller will train.” Get a calendar with specific hours.

Have a Bay Area business you’re thinking about selling? Reply to this email and let’s talk. ScoutDesk highlights listings that are specific, linkable, and buyer-ready — not just interesting.

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